GHINWA PISSAROCI/Strategic Analyst

INTRODUCTION:

Despite peace efforts and diplomatic engagements to find a solution to the ongoing Israel-Hamas war, there is hardly any tangible result. The fiasco at the UN, another theatre for mediation, clearly points to lack of sincerity. It gave an impression that diplomacy is all about lies but in a polished manner. Thus, the present situation is going to warrant a bigger crisis to subdue the ongoing crisis in the West Asian region. But the undercurrent for a massive shift is getting visible. The West Asian situation may change for worse, perhaps more than it is anticipated. Iran is getting restless and may go nuclear any time soon.

ANALYSIS:

The West Asian crisis is taking a new turn. The JCPOA is not yielding any progress, rather in a limbo as interest groups are wrangling about any further concession to Iran. The prisoner swap between US and Iran has already created some bad blood within the Biden Administration.

This has now direct impact on Israel-Hamas war where more than 18,000 people are killed. While Hamas position is changing under Iranian and Qatari pressure, the US and Gulf countries are also not able to take a clear position on this issue.

Meanwhile, Iran has further increased its pressure tactic by using Houthi rebels in Yemen’s strategic Red Sea area. The rebels who are equipped with Iranian supplied weapons are targeting randomly any ship that is closer by within their range.

This is now further vitiating the situation. The rebels operating from Lebanon and Syrian territory have shifted to Yemen to help out Houthis to block the sea lanes of communications.

No doubt, any attack on foreign ships will draw more global attention but it involves lot of risks. The US and others are planning to form a Red Sea naval flotilla to provide security to the passing ships.

This has invited criticism from Iran. Even Iran has recently gone for further enrichment of Uranium almost dumping the hope to get any deal from US any time soon.

The stalemate in the present situation is giving Iran to explore the possibility to come out open about its nuclear program. Once Iran goes nuclear then a chain of events might unfold without any delay.

This will change the strategic balance in the entire West Asian region triggering a back clash. The US position in the region, quite directionless at the moment, will be further weakened. That will give Iran tremendous advantage.