US-Iran war could change borders in West Asia
GHINWA PISSAROCI/Strategic Analyst
INTRODUCTION:
The ongoing conflict in West Asia will finally change the borders. From outside, it looks like a complicated situation between US and Iran but in reality it is a geopolitical game.
Thus, a war between the United States and Iran would not remain a limited bilateral conflict. It would likely transform the political geography of West Asia in profound ways. The region’s borders have historically been fragile, shaped less by organic social realities and more by external interventions such as the Sykes–Picot Agreement. A
large-scale conflict today would interact with these underlying tensions, making border changes not only possible but, in some cases, inevitable.
ANALYSIS:
One of the primary reasons such a war could alter borders is the high probability of regional spillover. Iran’s strategic influence extends beyond its own territory through allied groups and militias operating in countries like Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon.
In the event of direct confrontation with the United States, these actors would likely become active participants, turning the conflict into a multi-front war. As central governments in these states come under pressure, territorial control could shift from national authorities to regional militias or ethnic groups.
Over time, such control often solidifies into new political boundaries, either formally recognized or functioning as de facto borders.
Another important factor is the fragility of existing states in the region. Several West Asian countries already face deep sectarian and ethnic divisions. A prolonged war would exacerbate these internal fractures, weakening state institutions and potentially leading to fragmentation.
For instance, regions dominated by specific ethnic or sectarian groups might seek autonomy or independence if central authority collapses. Historical patterns suggest that once such divisions are militarized, they are difficult to reverse, increasing the likelihood of permanent territorial reorganization.
Strategic geography also plays a critical role. The Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most vital oil transit chokepoints, has become a focal point in any US-Iran conflict. Control over such areas is not merely tactical but geopolitical, as it influences global trade and energy security.
If one side were to establish sustained control over key maritime or coastal regions, it could lead to disputes over sovereignty and, ultimately, adjustments in territorial boundaries or zones of control. The possibility of regime change or political restructuring within Iran itself adds another layer of complexity. Should the conflict significantly weaken the Iranian state, internal divisions could surface, potentially leading to decentralization or fragmentation.
Conversely, if Iran emerges stronger, it may expand its influence across neighboring regions, effectively reshaping borders through indirect control. In both scenarios, the traditional concept of fixed national boundaries would be challenged by evolving spheres of influence.
Energy geopolitics further intensifies the likelihood of border changes. West Asia holds some of the world’s largest reserves of oil and natural gas, making territorial control economically and strategically vital. During a conflict, external powers may support specific groups or regions to secure access to these resources. Such interventions often result in new political arrangements, particularly in resource-rich areas where competing claims are strongest.
Finally, historical precedent suggests that major wars tend to redraw maps, especially in regions with contested identities and externally imposed borders.
The current boundaries in West Asia have long been criticized for ignoring ethnic, tribal, and sectarian realities. A large-scale war could act as a catalyst for long-standing demands for self-determination, leading to the emergence of new states or autonomous regions.
However, a US-Iran war could reshape borders in West Asia through a combination of regional spillover, state fragmentation, strategic competition, and energy politics. The region’s existing vulnerabilities make it particularly susceptible to such changes. While the exact outcomes would depend on the course of the conflict, the likelihood of
altered territorial arrangements remains high, reflecting the broader tendency of major wars to redefine political geography.
