Colored crisis
7/17/2010 2:54:50 PM
Like Central Asia, Thailand too has just passed through a colored revolution. The violent end to this turmoil has shattered the Thai economic and political fabric which will take at least four years to recover according to international business groups and political analysts. But behind the whole event it was China and United States playing their respective roles as friend, philosopher and guide to the entire drama. Thailand’s strategic significance is time tested whether it is Vietnam War or ASEAN geo-politics. Now, China wants to oust US from Thailand and play the same role in the region to assert its preeminence

The much anticipated ‘yellow shirt’ versus ‘red shirt’ is a well choreographed game but behind the scene players will never be known in public for years to come. It was clear ever since former Thai PM was appointed as advisor to Cambodia -a new hub of China’s strategic power play-just few months ago that a plot has been created for showdown.

Although China made inroads into Thailand through former Thai Premier Thaksin Shinawatra, US upset that game through the military and the King-both represent Thai nationalism and wield substantial power base. Now this game has resulted in red versus yellow.

Historically, Thailand can rightfully boast of its one unique status as it is the only country in South East Asia that was never colonized. Therefore, when the country changed its name from Siam to Thailand (meaning Land of the Free) in 1939 it was apt then; but not any longer.

Political turmoil

Thailand has now become a Land of Strife. For past six decades, Thailand has moved from one crisis to another. Between 1947 and 1992, the country has been on and off military ruled. It has had a checkered history of coups, counter coups, coup attempts and massive roadside protests.

Of late, Thailand has come in the grip of color-coded form of political protests. The country is being torn asunder by Red Shirts (supporters of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra) and Yellow Shirts (those who are stiffly opposed to Shinawatra and are the supporters of the government of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva).

The Red Shirts are a political pressure group which opposes the Abhisit Vejjajiva’s government. The government dubs them as ‘terrorists’. The Red Shirts believe that the government took power ‘illegitimately’ with the help of the army and the judiciary.

The Red Shirt movement in Thailand is known as the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) with such prominent leaders as Veera Musikapong, Nattawut Saikua, Charan Ditthapichai and Dr Weng Tohjirakarn. Former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was ousted by the military in a September 2006 coup, has been choreographing the Red Shirts from abroad with the help of China.

The Yellow Shirts, officially known as People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD), are supporters of the present government and have US backing. They were behind the massive street protests that led to the military coup in September 2006.

Incidentally, the Yellow Shirts have chosen this color because it is the color of King Bhumibol Adulyadej, the world’s longest-reigning monarch. The Yellow Shirts accuse Thaksin of inadequate loyalty to the King, who is still a revered figure in Thailand.

The UDD has publicly opposed what it calls ‘the aristocratic polity’ in Thailand. By this phrase, the Red Shirts mean the system in which palace insiders, the military, and bureaucracy which gangs up together to thwart the popular mandate.

The UDD’s main demands are holding fresh parliamentary elections immediately and replacement of the military-drafted 2007 constitution with the 1997 Constitution.

General Prem Tinsulanonda, the President of the Privy Council and the King’s most senior advisor, is the favorite punching bag of the UDD and the Red Shirts have been demanding his resignation from the Privy Council.

The UDD knives against General Prem were further sharpened by Thaksin Shinawatra who alleged in a video broadcast to a UDD rally in March 2009 that General Prem masterminded the 2006 military coup, and that he along with fellow Privy Councilor members Surayud Chulanont and Chanchai Likhitjittha and the military engineered to catapult Abhisit to the chair of Prime Minister.

Soon after its formation in 2006, the UDD demonstrated its wide base among rural and urban population by organizing a series of rallies against the then military government. It tasted success when it overthrew Thaksin five weeks before scheduled elections.

It stopped its agitation program after the 2007 general election that was won by the People’s Power Party. The UDD has deep aversion to the People’s Alliance for Democracy.

Therefore, when PAD held violent anti-government street protests and the Yellow Shirts seized Government House in May 2008, the UDD bounced back into the political tug of war by organizing its own counter rallies.

The UDD got more reasons to give a new fillip to its violent agitation after Abhisit Vejjajiva became Prime Minister through Parliamentary vote without fighting elections. Another phase of bloodbath was witnessed by Thailand in April 2009 as Red Shirts fought pitched, bloody battles with military forces.

The UDD protestors gathered in large numbers in Bangkok and held a massive show of strength at Government House and the nearby Royal Plaza on April 8, 2009. Credible reports put the size of the rallyists in six figures. The government responded by declaring a state of emergency in Bangkok and surrounding areas and deployed troops in the capital.

Protest and emergencies

A flashpoint came soon thereafter when the UDD protests spread to Pattaya, the venue of the 4th East Asia Summit. Violent clashes erupted between the Red Shirts and the government supporters, resulting in the cancellation of the Summit and declaration of emergency in the areas of Pattaya and Chonburi on April 11.

The emergency was lifted on April 24, 2009. By now the battle-lines had clearly been drawn between Abhisit and Thaksin. At this point of time, Prime Minister Abhisit revoked Thaksin’s ordinary passport too. Abhisit had revoked Thaksin’s diplomatic passport shortly after assuming office.

Political tensions once again started snowballing in March 2010 when the current political crisis started and the Red Shirts started squatting on Bangkok’s arterial roads and intersections.

Within three weeks of the UDD agitation that started on March 12, the Red Shirts had swelled in numbers and squatted on the central business district of Bangkok. The latest UDD-led unrest came after the announcement of the Supreme Court’s verdict on Thaksin Shinawatra’s asset seizure case.

The UDD played its cards shrewdly. Obviously on Thaksin’s suggestion, the UDD chose not to protest the verdict but instead unveiled its plans to hold a mammoth protest in Bangkok on March 14 calling for fresh elections.

Five days before the proposed UDD rally, Abhisit imposed the Internal Security Act and said the Act would be in force from March 11 to 23. The Abhisit government also deployed a 50,000-strong security force in Bangkok.

The situation came to a head on March 12 when five bombs exploded in Bangkok in the ruling Democrat Party stronghold, though no casualties were reported. The D Day came on March 14, a Sunday, and witnessed the largest-ever peaceful protests in Thai history.

Soon, the Red Shirts embarked on another dramatic political gimmick: collecting blood and spilling it on roads outside Government House and other public places in Bangkok.

On April 8, the government once again clamped emergency. The action soon shifted to the heavily barricaded uplink-station for the Thaicom-satellite where the troops were deployed to prevent airing of People Channel, a popular TV channel sympathetic to the UDD.

The Red Shirts descended on the Station in large numbers on April 9 and turned violent the next day. Fierce clashes erupted between the two sides in which 25 people were killed and more than 800 injured.

The Yellow Shirts, who had called off their protests in December 2008 after Abhisit became Prime Minister threatened on April 18, 2010 to re-launch their protests if the government failed to put an end to the Red Shirts agitation.

The Yellow Shirts are led by media magnate Sondhi Limthongkul and Chamlong Srimuang, a former general with close ties to General Prem Tinsulanonda. They had demonstrated their capability and muscle power in November 2008 when they had staged a week-long sit-in at Bangkok’s two airports, bringing all air traffic to a grinding halt.

The two-month-long agitation by the Red Shirts finally ended on May 19, 2010 when the Thai security forces launched a decisive crackdown on the protestors. Though Thailand may be limping back to normalcy, it is likely that the politically polarized nation would witness newer wave of mass agitations by the Red Shirts in near future.

It is highly unlikely that fresh elections, even if they are held later this year ( a promise that Abhisit made but soon retracted when the government’s negotiations with the Red Shirts went awry) would provide a lasting solution to the Land of Strife.

The Red Shirts versus Yellow Shirts political battle may have come to a halt as of now, but straws in the wind suggest that it could merely be a dress rehearsal to a bigger looming crisis which may being into question the very legitimacy of the Thai state itself.

(SOURCE: The article was published in the June 2010 issue of STRATEGIC AFFAIRS magazine, an outfit of CASS-India)