Alliance of distrust
7/17/2010 2:47:47 PM
The best description of US-Pakistan relationship - the most distrusted alliance ever seen in the history which has surpassed even Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact - is “gamble at your own risk”. Do not get surprised over New York plot. Players behind the shadows now blame each other. While the US points at TTP and cohorts, Pakistan in its usual denial mode says the plotter is a US citizen. Further, Pakistan is adamant that it is just a mud slinging act of America towards a Major Non NATO Alliance (MNNA). Even some within the Pakistan military feel it is a US ploy to force Pakistan to do more on Taliban which Islamabad is unwilling to do so far

America has sustained a failed state- Pakistan-despite itself being in the middle of a massive economic recession. Policies and generosity towards Islamabad are being justified as a strategic necessity for Washington to keep Pakistan alive endlessly, more particularly, at a time when America has allowed its own economic entities to die a natural death.

Days before New York failed plot, President Obama said in his address that US people are safer now than ever before while granting more aid to Pakistan. The result is just out before all.

Somewhere, the whole US strategy has gone wrong but no one dares to admit, forget about correcting it. Appeasement has never worked in case of Pakistan in the past too. But the US spends tax payers’ money in billions just to fulfill its MNNA obligations.

As a result of sustained US economic flow to Pakistan has enabled Pakistani military-Jiahdi establishment to target American mainland almost at will. In every couple of months, there is a demo of target seeking initiative by this entity either in Afghanistan or elsewhere.

Yet, America keeps on feeding an ally which is hopeless. If Greece having a free market and access to EU can fail, then what about Pakistan which is a terrorist state by all standards. It is the good book of Washington which has not yet branded Pakistan as a terrorist state till date.

The fear expressed by a CIA analyst is in right direction that next major attack on America will bear the hallmark of ‘Pakistan’. By the way does it take a decade for an agency like CIA to make such an assessment. This is an expression of intuition. Often, an institution is generated on the basis of principle of unknown. But the act does exist somewhere.

It appears that it is coming. Just on the way. Remember before 9/11, there were couple of attempts by Pakistanis and Africans to target America. This time is no exception. First, it was a Nigerian bomber known as Xmas attacker and then a Times Square plotter of Pakistani origin.

The US aid is probably in right direction as per Al Qaeda philosophy. Al Qaeda says local resources should be used against the victim. Going by this, America’s aid is being used against America. The bulk of Bush administration aid was diverted by the Pakistani military to fight India. Then it also gets diverted by ‘S’ wing of ISI as per necessity.

Yet, America offers a strategic partnership dialogue to Pakistani military which is a rouge entity and US privately talks of a civilian nuclear deal like the one it has offered to India. Both India and Pakistan may be sub-continental twins but they are poles apart in reality.

When Arabs were silent on Prophet cartoon controversy why Pakistan went on to ban Facebook, Twitter and YouTube? Because Pakistan wanted to be ‘more pure’ than the Arabs in dealing with Islam. It displayed extra aggression to secure a special identity. In reality, Pakistanis are more pseudo Islamists than rest of the world.

Today, India and Pakistan are deeply unknown to each other. One adheres to Arab brand of pan-Islamic identity while India is becoming a global and technology savvy nation with a vibrant economy. The US must visualize its policies if it wants to be relevant to South Asia. Equalizing politics will boomerang sooner or later.

Failing strategy

The US confusion in dealing with Pakistan has lot of fallout. While the Pentagon and CIA on one side, the State Department has chosen a different course. Hillary Clinton’s threat to have severe consequences had the bomb plot succeeded, is a right approach. But some within the Obama Administration opposed it.

The US alliance with Pakistan has a mixed outcome. As long as Pakistan remains strong it will be able to maintain a strong military. A strong military will interfere in state affairs openly and control developments to its own advantage. On the top of it, Pakistan military controls non state actors in a large number.

This is the contradiction. America wants to deal with Pakistani state. There is no Pakistani state as such in reality. It is Pakistani military which actually has created a state for its diplomacy and adventurism.

The paradox will drag for some more time. But the danger to US mainland will not recede. For example, if a rouge Pakistani military officer decides to arm Taliban with NBC (nuclear, biological and chemical) weapon or some ragtag device then the disaster may be felt the next day as US has over one lakh troops in Afghanistan.

If Pakistan is split into two or three or four entities the Pakistani military will have to be split automatically and the critical mass will be dented. A strong Pakistani state means a strong military and a strong jihadi force.

Thus, the US must give up the illusion to make Pakistan a strong nation. There is no benefit for America in that venture. May be the New York plot has forced Pakistan to round up some elements but there could be a bigger plot.

If some Americans wonder that with few introductions how the New York plotter was trusted by Taliban to be trained to attack US, it may be a conjecture. In reality, there could be another plot hatching. This may be the first one to judge American response.

A weak response will embolden Pakistan to do more or try once more. That is the threat. The US attack on Afghanistan in 2001 to throw Taliban from power was intended to make Taliban stateless so that they remain on the run.

In the post 9/11, the Taliban retreated to FATA and now attacks are being planned and carried out from these hideouts which Pakistan partially acknowledges its territorial sovereignty.

The argument that Taliban is less powerful today is just not true. The difficulties may have increased but not the intention. That is conducive for Pakistan as well. Even Pakistan does not want a strong Taliban as the latter might challenge the supremacy of the former.

But the US must review its policies after knowing that its strategy on Pakistan is failing. Any policy confusion or delay will have consequences for America. Equipping Pakistan military with latest weapon may result in greater danger.

Pakistan has effectively used those weapons against Baluch rebels, against Afghanistan and deployed along Line of Control with India. Pakistan needs to be coerced, not to be appeased-as this theory has resulted in New York plot.

If failure is the path to success, then next time Pakistan supported entities may succeed in flawless operation. In that case, if Pakistan knows that whatever its elements do or orchestrate, the responsibility will be fixed on Islamabad there will be no second attack on America with Pakistani ‘hallmark’.

(SOURCE: The article was published in the June 2010 issue of STRATEGIC AFFAIRS magazine, an outfit of CASS-India)